Debunking Myths #1: Cities are the future
This article does not represent Extinction Rebellion’s position, but the opinion of a rebel member of the “Myth Debunkers for XR” group. See how the group drafts and selects articles, on our community forum: https://base.extinctionrebellion.be/t/myth-debunkers-for-xr-group-creation/787.
Hi, my rebel name is Valsilver, I am +25, and I have a background in Environment and Resource Management, and currently working on environmental policy. Passionate about permaculture and agroecology, I spent more than one year in the creation of an agroecological project in Spain, and planning to get my hands back in the soil soon.
Total reading time: 15 minutes.
Cities and consumerism
We live in a consumerist society heading to always more populated cities. Our resilience, which is the capacity to survive and adapt from strong disturbances in the environment, is lowest in our current urban settings, where the community uses time, space, and resources, on activities that are not directly for producing food or other basic needs for its well-being. If tomorrow grocery stores stopped selling food (due to a financial crisis, or ecological collapse), the day after citizens would be in a full-fledged revolution in the streets, begging and scavenging for food and other essential goods. Especially now, during the Covid-19 pandemic, we are reminded how living in dense cities, and being dependent on grocery stores, makes our lives so fragile: we are dependent on food (and resources) produced and extracted elsewhere, and reliant on highly unpredictable supply chains. Our food security, which currently relies predominantly on the cheap availability of fossil fuels and other limited resources, is hanging on by a thread, and the situation is likely to worsen very fast…but…why?
‘Killer FACTS’
1. Crippling resources: we are reaching peak levels on a number of essential materials and elements on which the current food system depends.
- Phosphorus, produced from phosphate rock, is an essential mineral fertilizer for industrial agriculture. At current consumption levels, we will run out of known phosphorus reserves in around 80 years, but consumption (and costs) will not stay at current levels.
- Water: a recent study published by the World Resource Institute found out that ¼ of the world’s population (almost 2 billion people) is in ‘extreme water stress’.Belgium, famous for its rainy weather, resulted to be the 23rd most water stressed country in the world, right after Morocco. Being depleted at vertiginous speed are aquifers, and this is mostly due to our current agricultural system, and densely populated cities.
- Energy: The era of cheap and abundant energy is ending. This can be explained by the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI), which tells us the energy delivered to society over the energy that is used to extract it. If in 1919 the U.S.A’s EROI for oil and gas was equal to 1:1200 (with one liter of oil the industry could extract 1200 liters of oil), in 2007 the ratio was down to 1:5. Dr. Charles Hall, founder of the EROI methodology, and other major researchers in the field have suggested that, to be sustained, modern civilization needs a minimum EROI between 1:7 and 1:14. Our energy system is on the verge of collapsing.
2. Biodiversity collapse: we depend, and are part, of this extremely complex network of life called ‘biodiversity’. Unfortunately, we have been destroying and intoxicating natural habitats for more than a century, leading to the 6th mass extinction of life on our planet (the 5th one being the dinosaurs). Synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, deep tillage and annual monocultures, have decimated, inter alia, pollinators and earthworms populations, and depleted soils of organic matter, bacterial and fungi’s life. Our soils are being eroded and depleted of life and nutrients at such a rate, that the UN gives 60 years to global agricultural lands before being completely unable to provide food.
3. Abrupt climate change: because of their unpredictability, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has widely underestimated feedback loops (e.g.: melting of permafrost, or arctic ice) in its famous “1.5C Report”. Numerous studies suggest that extreme events (mega-fires, prolonged heat waves and extreme droughts, accelerated coastal floodings, etc) might very likely become a reality within our generation, with devastating consequences on our vulnerable food system.
Let’s combine all these factors, and we now understand that food production under our current globalized and industrial agricultural system, be it “bio”, or “vegan”, will soon be brought to its knees (in 5, 10, 20, who knows exactly, years), and cause dramatic famines all over Europe and the world (=> Note that certified biological food does not necessarily address our aforementioned bio-physical limits, as its production still remains heavily based on the use of machines, monoculture and annual crops, pesticides -although ‘natural’-, and soil tillage). If food systems operating with reduced or zero external inputs (aka self-sufficient) have to rise from this situation, and they must, our society will change in a way we haven’t seen since the green revolution (which actually saw the opposite trend happening).
I gave an overview of the problems, now it’s time to look at the solutions.
Space and urban planning
According to Ecology Action, one individual could be self-sufficient by bio-intensively growing food on +-400m2, while being on a strict vegetarian and simple diet. If we make a redundant abstraction, we can take the space available per person in Brussels: 130m2 (total surface divided by its population). If we consider that a large part of the city is covered or shaded by (cemented) buildings and roads, the available growing surface is far less than 130m2/person.
While removing asphalt for growing, or creating massive green belts around the city is at this point necessary, we would still be far from making Brussels, or other major cities, self-sufficient: using the data provided by Ecology Action, we would need at least 4 times Brussels’ surface to grow food for its population (400m2 times the population). Disinvesting from useless cement monsters, and implementing a gradual and planned downsize of our densely populated cities seems at this point the right idea before shit starts seriously hitting the fan. (btw, did you know that sand, essential for cement, is also running out?)
An “army” of regenerative farmers
Farmers in the EU are old: 32% of EU farmers are +65 years old. This means that just in terms of replacing the older generation, more than 3 million farmers will have to enter in activity in the EU within the next 10 years. And just to keep the production going with the same agricultural system. Achieving an agricultural system away from industrial farming however, means more than replacing what we already have, but changing the way we produce food and envision agriculture. It means necessarily: less or no machines and automation (see “High-tech and Agriculture?” chapter), and smaller plots of land per farmer, which means more labor force needed!
To explain this, let’s look at a modern history example: Cuba, because of the 90’s embargo, was forced to drastically cut its dependency on fossil fuels (hence, cut energy consumption). Heavy machinery and gasoline becoming too expensive, obliged 15-25% of the Cuban population to start growing (quality food) manually, to replace what machines and synthetic chemicals were doing before. In a few years, although not without sacrifices, Cuba has become the center of a new agricultural revolution, based on agroecology and self-sufficient systems. That we agree or not with its political regime, Cuba has shown to us what happens to a civilization finding itself in deep energy shortage, and its experience allows us to plan ahead to build long-term resilience for the shocks we will be facing.
If the labor force seen in Cuba to move from a fossil-dependent food system to a post-fossil one was applied in Europe (hopefully with better planning and less disruption) this means that in the EU, about 100 million people would be needed for the new agricultural revolution! And there you go also solved the unemployment problem.
High-tech and agriculture?
In a world with much less accessible dense energy (remember the EROI), crippling resources and biodiversity, and abrupt changes in climate and weather patterns, scaled high-tech solutions (e.g.: smart robots and automated farms) sound like a very bad idea. Although proposing some potential benefits in the short-term, overall high-tech solutions remain heavily dependent on the extraction of rare earth materials (which by the way will inevitably lead land and ocean ecosystems to be drilled to death), and on a steady inflow of cheap and abundant energy.
The “vegan world” illusion
The end of industrial agriculture, would mean diversification of production with the development of more perennial plants, but also, integration of animals in farm ecosystems. Vegan, vegetarian, and lower meat diets will be consequential in many localities, the moment we will start producing food with low-to-zero external inputs. Yes. However, thinking that a future post-fossil fuels society can go without the integration, and therefore consumption, of animals and their ‘by-products’, is an illusion.
Animals in fact can provide, with very little or zero external inputs, essential functionalities for self-sufficient and resilient ecosystems: energy (biogas from manure), long-lasting and biodegradable by-products (eg.: leather and wool), wildfire prevention, fast soil regeneration (hence drought resistance and carbon storage), transform feeds unsuited for human consumption into nutritious food (from perennial grasslands to animal-based food for us),animal traction,and very importantly, allow us to efficiently close nutrient cycles.
Instead of advocating for veganism, what should be the focus of environmental activism in this context is the need for a rapid transition from a consumerist to a producers’ society. A society which advocates for re-appropriating itself of the means to a gradual but rapid move to the countryside, to“produce” forests and healthy soils, food, energy, shelter, and deeper social bonds!It is clear that, at this point, our picky globalist consumption choices will adapt and transform according to what our local/regional resources, soil, community and climate can offer and, of course, what we will be able to produce ourselves.
The vision
Now, imagine going from a life spent in an office hunched over a computer all day, to a life in the outdoors, in contact with millions of other forms of life. Imagine our transformed countryside and our (ehm…down-sized…ehm…de-cemented) cities thriving with life and breathing soil that awards us with tasty, diverse, and highly-nutritious foods. Rural living might have lost its attractiveness because of loneliness, economic and land access struggles, and an agriculture that has led to monotonous and mono-chromatic landscapes. But it doesn’t need to be this way.
What if networks of collaborating self-sufficient rural and urban productive communities could start flourishing? What if work became more fun, peaceful, creative, and satisfactory, and our daily activity be in deep communication with the land and people? What if we created resilient, perennial, and regenerating food systems and communities? And what if we rebelled to make this vision possible?
It can be achieved, needs to be achieved, and might probably be anyway with time (although through uncontrollable and very ‘unhappy’ events).
What are we waiting for?
#JointheRebellion
Join the XR Belgium “Permaculture group”
To read more:
- (FR) Nourrir l’Europe en Temps de Crise (2013)
- (EN) 50 Million Farmers (2006)
- (EN) Thinking of food as a commons (2017)
To watch more (don’t forget to lower your video quality):
